29 March 2011
A cursory glance at the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations qualification groups makes you wonder whether there is a growing shift in power in African football.
Cameroon, Egypt, Mali, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have all looked less than convincing in the qualifiers to date, and all are in serious danger of not making the tournament in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon next year.
Then take the rise of some less familiar names, Botswana, Malawi, Cape Verde, Niger, Sudan, Uganda, all with a very real chance of making the 2012 finals, and we might have a very ‘different’ field.
Of those teams, Sudan and Uganda have been to the finals before, but Sudan have made only one appearance since 1976 and Uganda none.
The group stages still have to play themselves out, we are only at the halfway point in most, so much can change between now and the end of the qualifiers in October.
Of the struggling giants, Cameroon and Egypt’s positions are most perilous, and they might have been regarded as shoo-ins before the start of qualifying.
Egypt trail South Africa by six points in their pool, having managed just a single point in their first three games.
Cameroon have been slightly unlucky in being pooled with Senegal, a side on the rise, and the Indomitable Lions now trail their west African rivals by five points in their pool.
It seems unlikely that either will make the 2012 finals, bringing to an end Egypt’s run of three successive victories in the competition. The Pharaohs have appeared in every tournament since 1982.
Cameroon have missed just one final since 1980 (in 1994) and with their array of stars, it would seem inconceivable that they would not make it, especially as they have brought in the experienced Spaniard Javier Clemente as their new coach.
One of Algeria and Morocco will likely fall by the wayside as they are in the same pool and for both to qualify the second-placed team would need to finish amongst the best of the runners-up and that seems unlikely with their points haul of just four in three matches.
Nigeria are facing a tough fight with Guinea in their pool, Tunisia likewise with Malawi and Mali must overcome a vastly improved Cape Verde side.
There will be some big casualties in this year’s qualifying, but whether it represents a permanent ‘changing of the guard’ in Africa remains to be seen. But the emergence of new sides as powerhouses should be welcomed, as it can only strengthen the African game long-term.
