Ukoha Ukiwe is a
lecturer in the Department of Political Science and Administrative
Studies, University of Port Harcourt in Rivers State. He is also an
election observer under the aegis of the CLEAN Foundation. He analyses
the build up to elections in Rivers State.
Build up to elections in Rivers State
Compared to the
2003 and 2007 elections, the buildup to the 2011 elections has been
rather peaceful. We’ve not heard about much clashes and a number of
factors account for this. On the one hand, the amnesty programme is not
perfect but it is holding. Many of the young men that politicians had
mobilized to cause violence [in the past] are undergoing rehabilitation
and they have been somewhat demobilised. Secondly, the stakes for this
election are not as high as it was for Rivers State in 2007.
Then and now
In 2007, the
incumbent [Peter Odili] was not running and there were a number of
associates that wanted to succeed him. And therefore, the tussle even
within the [ruling] Peoples Democratic Party for the gubernatorial seat
was really intense. And the candidate elected at the primaries [Rotimi
Amaechi] was substituted because the then president didn’t want him,
eventually the Supreme Court returned him. The elections were organised
within that context, where there was dissatisfaction within the PDP in
the state about who should be the gubernatorial candidate. That factor
helped to raise tensions because when he [Mr Amaechi] was substituted,
he had his own followers and [Celestine Omehia], the person who was
used to substitute him also had his own followers, so there was that
tension. That was a key factor apart from the fact that militancy was
still at its peak at that time.
Today, the tussles
within the PDP is reduced. Many of the elements within the PDP that
would have served as opponents to the incumbent governor, Mr Amaechi
[within the party] have left and joined other parties (Celestine Omehia
has joined APGA (All Progressives Grand Alliance) and Abiye Sekibo has
joined the ACN – Action Congress of Nigeria). Apart from being the
incumbent, the fact that he [Mr Amaechi] is deemed to have performed
creditably well in different sectors – education, infrastructure,
health, which has further reduce the stakes. Another factor that has
worked well for Rivers States, really, is the decision of the former
governor, Peter Odili, to steer clear of the political scene. What that
has done is that within the PDP, there is no cohesive strong force to
oppose the incumbent governor.
Hot spots
Beyond the
governorship elections, where there is likely to be problems is at the
other positions – House of Reps, senatorial, (and) House of Assembly.
During the primaries, especially in the ruling party, there were
allegations of imposition of candidates and sometimes attempted attacks
on people that were, so-called imposed, but that did not degenerate
into violence. You see, what raises the stakes in elections generally
is when the incumbent is unpopular and wants to remain in power at all
costs and you have a popular opposition that is coming out, that people
want to rally around. In Rivers State it doesn’t appear that is going
to be the case because the incumbent is to some extent popular. So, if
the opposition wants to go through violence, what they will just do is
to alienate themselves from the people further.
There are likely
to be some skirmishes, however. And why the Emmanuel Deeya [a member of
the House of Representatives who was kidnapped last Saturday] case is
interesting is the fact that he is not contesting in the elections; he
has been there for two terms. People are still trying to find a
plausible reason for the incident. However, it has made some
politicians that were hitherto not considered vulnerable to attacks or
violence to insist that they will have to come to the polling stations
with their security. The fear is that it is really a commercially
motivated kidnap.
The nature of campaign so far
There is no level
playing field in Nigeria, not just in Rivers State and that is part of
my concern. I feel scandalized when elections come, but it is the
structure of the state – the nature of our political economy; everybody
that is somebody leans and gives support to the incumbent. Of course
you don’t blame them because it is an investment and when you are
making an investment you look at that angle which is most feasible. So,
across board there has been a lopsided nature of campaigning. Not
because the media don’t want to give different people air time, but
campaign is money. So, when you turn on the radio, if you hear 500
Jonathan campaign jingles, you’d probably hear one for Ribadu, one for
Buhari. And it cascades down to all other aspects. And that is why I’m
really concerned about the decision of the country not to take very
seriously the recommendation of the Uwais Commission to take away from
INEC regulation of political parties and create a political parties
regulation commission. INEC is no longer functionally specialised to do
so. It is saddled with many responsibilities and clearly, as these
elections show, it has not been able to regulate the parties in terms
of their finances.
Postponed elections and franchise
What the decision
to postpone elections depicts is that things are changing. I observed
elections (in Nasarawa State, last Saturday) and one of the things that
struck me was that Nigerians are very zealous to vote, people came out
in full numbers to vote. And I link this to the successful mobilization
that took place during the voters registration exercise, and subsequent
political education and mobilization. One other thing that has added
value, and this is really important, is the person of the chair of
INEC, Atahiru Jega. Many Nigerians felt that he was going to deliver
better elections than what we’ve had and this brought people out.
Now, what happened
on Saturday was a disappointment (for Nigerians). But after the reasons
[for the postponement were explained], people have sat back to reflect,
and increasingly people are beginning to express that it was a wise
decision that INEC made. It may have been belated, but the fact that
INEC led by Jega admitted that error, took responsibility for it and
postponed the elections is indicative that the commission is interested
in organising free, fair and credible elections because previously they
would have just covered the problems up, after all, not everywhere had
problems.
As a political
scientist, I am looking at it all from the long term development of the
country; I’m happy that this thing happened. In terms of the long term
development, I think this will serve as a lesson to people, to register
where they are resident. Obviously some people, depending on their
interest will still go to their villages to vote. So, in that sense,
nobody disenfranchised them [those who will be unable to travel], they
disenfranchised themselves; they didn’t register in places close to
them. So, I don’t think that any Nigerian who does not vote because
they went to register in their villages should not blame anybody.
The modified open ballot system
The modified open
ballot system is really the best because it will guide against
electoral fraud. But the time element is very critical to the success
of this system and if INEC is able to get that right, it will solve a
lot of problems. By 8.am accreditation must start otherwise many people
will not be accredited and that is where disenfranchisement will come
in.
Today, we keep
saying that the 1993 was the freest and fairest election in the
country, but it was not because of the characters involved, it was
because of the institutional framework, the open ballot system. The
modified open ballot system is going to work in a similar way; the only
difference is that this (new) system will bring in some level of
secrecy, which in our modern world is very important.
The other thing
about it is that it makes it extremely difficult for double voting to
take place. Accreditation starts by 8.am; you join the line and get
accredited, stay back for voting, which starts after the accreditation
has stopped all over, and then you wait for the votes to be counted.
So, it’s difficult to get accredited in two differing polling stations.
Now, if INEC can
address these logistical issues on Saturday, and if they resolve the
conflicting signals with security agencies, they will gain the
confidence of Nigerians and in subsequent elections more people will
come out to vote. Under the modified open ballot system- the system
that INEC has adopted, the system that the National Assembly has
recognized, the system that is in the Electoral Act – voters are to
stay behind to see their votes counted. But security agents are saying
these will create chaos and therefore they have been telling people to
vote and go, while INEC is insisting that people should stay back and
see your votes counted. Now, if INEC changes its position and says
people should go after voting, it will lose credibility and that will
compromise the process.
If all these are resolved, we will have a free and fair election.
People will complain when they lose but it will be a great improvement
on what we had in the past.
