Today, the term ‘revolution’ is being bandied about by many Nigerians. But significantly, it has also become something of a mantra being sung by politically important voices. Samplers of recent allusions or bare-knuckle calls for revolution came from such personalities as former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Prof. Ben Nwabueze, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Prof. Chinua Achebe, Sheik Ahmed Lemu, Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Prince Tony Momoh, Bishop David Oyedepo, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Layiwola Erinosho and several others.
That this symphony comes against a background of increasing loss of faith in the polity suggests, or ought to communicate more than a passing message to the nation’s political leadership and fractured political elite.
While many revolutions may encompass events ranging from the relatively peaceful revolutions that overthrew communist regimes to the violent Islamic revolution in Afghanistan, they exclude coups d’états, civil wars, revolts and rebellions that make no effort to transform institutions or the justification for authority.
Hardly a tea party, revolutions are complex phenomena; fundamental changes in power or organisational structures that takes place in a relatively short period of time. Revolutions have occurred through human history and vary widely in terms of methods, duration, and motivating ideology. Their results include major changes in culture, economy, and socio-political institutions. Notes Wikipedia, scholarly debates about what does and does not constitute a revolution center around several issues.
Early studies of revolutions primarily analysed events in European history from a psychological perspective, but more modern examinations include global events and incorporate perspectives from several social sciences, including sociology and political science. Several generations of scholarly thought on revolutions have generated many competing theories and contributed much to the current understanding of this complex phenomenon.
Beyond revolutions in the turfs of science, culture and the arts, political usage of the term had been well established by 1688 in the description of the replacement of James II with William III. The process was termed “The Glorious Revolution.” Apparently the sense of social change and the geometric sense as in “Surface of revolution” developed in various European languages from the Latin between the 14th and 17th centuries, the former developing as a metaphor from the latter. “Revolt” as an event designation appears after the process term and is given a related but distinct and later derivation.
There are different typologies of revolutions in social science and literature. For instance, Alexis de Tocqueville the classical scholar differentiated between political revolutions, sudden and violent revolutions that seek not only to establish a new political system but to transform an entire society and slow but sweeping transformations of the entire society that take several generations to bring about. One of several different Marxist typologies divides revolutions into pre-capitalist, early bourgeois, bourgeois, bourgeois-democratic, early proletarian and socialist revolutions.
The online encyclopedia further notes that Charles Tilly, a modern scholar of revolutions, differentiated between a coup, a top-down seizure of power, a civil war, a revolt and a “great revolution” (revolutions that transform economic and social structures as well as political institutions, such as the French Revolution of 1789, Russian Revolution of 1917, or Islamic Revolution of Iran).? Other types of revolution, created for other typologies, include the social revolutions; proletarian or communist revolutions inspired by the ideas of Marxism that aims to replace capitalism with communism); failed or abortive revolutions (revolutions that fail to secure power after temporary victories or large-scale mobilization) or violent versus nonviolent revolutions.
As a term, “revolution” has also been used to signify great changes outside the political sphere. Such revolutions are usually recognized as having transformed in society, culture, philosophy and technology much more than political systems; they are often known as social revolutions. Some can be global, while others are limited to single countries. One of the classic examples of the usage of the word revolution in such context is the industrial revolution.
The works of the trio of Ted Robert Gurr, Ivo K. Feierbrand and Rosalind L. Feierbrand followed theories of cognitive psychology and frustration-aggression theory and saw the cause of revolution in the state of mind of the masses. While they varied in their approach as to what exactly caused the people to revolt (e.g. modernization, recession or discrimination), they agreed that the primary cause for revolution was the widespread frustration with a socio-political situation.
Academics such as Chalmers Johnson, Neil Smelser and Bob Jessop pitched for the structural-functionalist theory in sociology. They saw society as a system in equilibrium between various resources, demands and subsystems (political, cultural, et cetera.) As in the psychological school, they differed in their definitions of what causes disequilibrium, but agreed that it is a state of a severe disequilibrium that is responsible for revolutions. The evolution of the study of the triggers of revolutionary continued.
In the course of time, a new body of scholarly work began questioning the dominance of the third generation’s theories. This development started from the late 1980s. The old theories were also dealt a significant blow by new revolutionary events that could not be easily explained by them. The Iranian and Nicaraguan Revolutions of 1979, the 1986 People Power Revolution in the Philippines and the 1989 Autumn of Nations in Europe saw multi-class coalitions topple seemingly powerful regimes amidst popular demonstrations and mass strikes in non-violent revolutions. These new models ultimately ousted the subsisting popular constructs.
Willy-nilly, defining revolutions as mostly violent European state versus people and class struggles conflicts became insufficient. The study of revolutions thus evolved in three directions: firstly, some researchers were applying previous or updated structuralist theories of revolutions to events beyond the previously analyzed, mostly European conflicts.
Secondly, scholars called for greater attention to conscious agency in the form of ideology and culture in shaping revolutionary mobilization and objectives. Third, analysts of both revolutions and social movements realized that those phenomena have much in common, and a new ‘fourth generation’ literature on contentious politics has developed that attempts to combine insights from the study of social movements and revolutions in hopes of understanding both phenomena.
It’s within the context of this welter of complex dimensions, models, nuances, typologies and philosophies of revolutionary change that the symphony for a revolution in Nigeria may be appraised and perhaps understood. What are the key triggers that birthed calls for a revolution in the country? Why are some voices previously and even currently privileged to incept change now crying ‘wolf’? Is the current geo-political, socio-economic and religious canvass of Nigeria conducive to the complex chemistry of massive, sudden change? What shape would a theoretical revolution take or which model would it adopt? Big questions!
But one thing is clear. Gustave Le Bon’s modeling of the psychological, sociological and political triggers of revolt is in sync with Chalmers Johnson’s ‘state of severe disequilibrium’ and Ted Robert Gurr’s widespread frustration with a socio-political situation theory. These enunciated fundamentals are clearly present is the current state of angst of many Nigerians against the state.
At press time, Nigeria essentially represents a ticking time-bomb. Extreme deficits in governance, abysmal unemployment scenario, alarming levels of insecurity, a fractured and fractious political intelligentsia, official corruption and a leadership wanting a vision of genuine transformation may have provoked calls for a revolution to incept a new order. But the added stridency may derive from a strange appreciation that these calls, in themselves, are insufficient to provoke a revolution in the classical sense of the term.
Worse still, the sincerity of some of key members of the ‘revolution orchestra’ is in doubt; not without good reason. Obasanjo for instance was president for eight years and there was no positive change in nearly all the key development indicators that societies are leveraged on. Will the Arab Spring-type of revolt sweep the country? Notwithstanding the apparent ripeness for a massive social change, the nation’s geopolitical history, questionable sincerity of political actors and the unschooled, unrevolutionary mindset of the masses suggest that a change within the contemplation of the current voices pitching for revolution may be indeed far off. Or is it? Read on…
Chinua Achebe
Miffed to no end at the socio-economic and political deterioration of his country, renowned writer, Prof. Chinua Achebe, recently called on Nigerians to rise up in unison and challenge the bad leadership and looting of the country, stating clearly that the country was doomed if its people do not act to halt corruption and ineptitude among its ruling elites. The iconic literary lion recently in protest rejected the national honour he was given by President Goodluck Jonathan.
Achebe voiced his inner position when the former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Nuhu Ribadu, visited him at his home in Bard College, an elite liberal arts university in the suburbs of? New York. His words: “We should feel we have come around and that we missed the bus the first time and that the correction of the situation in our country is in our hands. We can’t call the British back even though some people have suggested that. But we can’t allow this to go on any longer. Already our people are getting used to living in that ugly style.”
Achebe then challenged Mr. Ribadu to mobilize younger citizens to come together and straighten up the country and put Nigeria on the road to salvation. “The getting together of people like you across the country must be seen as the role of this generation. You must destroy the divisions that we have been taught to believe in and work together to save our country,” the writer told the former EFCC chief.
Sheikh Ahmed Lemu
In its recent report submitted to President Goodluck Jonathan, the Sheikh Ahmed Lemu-led Presidential Panel On 2011 Post-election Violence was emphatic that current happenings in the country, if left unchecked, could lead to a social revolution. Shortly after submitting the report, the panel chairman Lemu spoke to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) Hausa Service, on the committee’s work, especially on whether or not the committee indicted presidential candidate of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), General Buhari (Rtd), where he also reemphasized that the government should be prepared to face a revolt if it decides to abandon its report.
His words: “Well, in our own case, we stated unambiguously that considering what is happening around the world today, government will be doing a disservice to itself and Nigeria if it decides to abandon our report like the previous ones. In fact, we gave example with some rebellious actions organized by students and even workers’ union alike. So, we were emphatic in our submissions that if the government fails to act on our report, their refusal to take necessary action could lead to a revolution in Nigeria, like the type being witnessed in some Arab countries. So, we have given the government adequate warning signs on the need to act on our reports.
“But we told the President that if he does take action and throw away our recommendations like the numerous ones before ours, then the President and the Federal Government should be ready to face a revolution. If that is what they want; we have finished our own part of the job and like we told them, we have collected our tickets to heaven, as we are only waiting for the angels and our prayers are that the angels would fly us and land into heaven. If the Federal Government fails to act, it is left to it.”
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi
During his recent conferment with an honorary Doctor of Business Administration degree at the 40th convocation of the University of Nigeria, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mallam Lamido Sanusi warned that the revolution in North Africa could occur in Nigeria if leaders do not put her vast resources to use. Obviously dismayed at the slow pace of the country’s economic growth and the growing rate of unemployment, the CBN governor proclaimed that only a re-engineered leadership could prevent an Egyptian-like revolution in Nigeria.
According to the blunt talking CBN boss, “If we do not put our vast resources to use, what is happening in North Africa would happen here. If we don’t take advantage of these potential, what happened in Tunisia and Egypt and the ongoing revolution in Libya would happen here. We have oil and gas, yet we are importing energy. We have large hectares of land, yet we are importing food. We have cassava in large quantity, yet we import starch. We have large belt of cotton, yet we import textile. We have hide and skin, yet we import shoes from China.”
On an optimistic note, he also expressed hope that the nation’s economic problems would be over within the next 10 to 20 years if we do the necessary things.
Tony Momoh
For the National Chairman, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) Prince Tony Momoh, a revolution is already on. He goes on to explain his dramatic position. “What do you people think is happening now where they cannot sleep with their eyes closed or ride in their cars with peace of mind or where school leavers cannot get jobs? A revolution almost broke out in the East recently when 280 Igbo youths were arrested while celebrating 10 years existence of MASSOB and were charged for treason.
“They said they wore Biafra uniforms. What is wrong with what they did? It was the timely intervention of Jonathan that solved the crisis. The MASSOB that has been going about its agitation peacefully would have been militarised. What do people think OPC is? A revolution is already on; people would not know yet until one day when we all wake and discover that we cannot step out of our houses.”
Bishop David Oyedepo
During the launch of the United Nations-Global Report on Human Settlements held at the Africa Leadership Development Centre, Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State recently, founder of the Living Faith Church, Bishop David Oyedepo berated Nigerian leaders over government’s insincerity, saying that a revolution in the political arena will prevent the country from disintegration. The cleric lamented the gross insensitivity of the government to the plight of the masses, describing most people in government as illiterates.
According to the fiery cleric, “Something may strike in Nigeria soonest. There must be a revolution in our political arena if we want to be redeemed from total collapse. Our politicians are sitting on a keg of gunpowder. It is a pity that we have a system that is highly insensitive to the plight of the people. Most people in government today are largely made up of illiterates who don’t have interest in information. Nigeria has been afflicted with poor governance which is our greatest problem. Government doesn’t have the capacity and morality to revamp our infrastructure. Nothing about government has ever worked. Everything is actual political robbery. There is gross insensitivity from the part of the government.”
Prof. Layiwola Erinosho
Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Layiwola Erinosho, on his part recently warned about an imminent revolution due to the widespread of poverty, surging crime, corrupt judiciary, weak Nigeria Police and selfish leadership. He also alerted that the dreaded Boko Haram might soon spread to the Southern part of the country in n distant future if the issues were not resolved.
According to him, “Poverty is the catalyst for revolution and social disorder. Grinding poverty was one of the major causes of the French revolution and Nigeria is heading towards such a revolution if poverty is not addressed very quickly.”
Professor Erinosho voiced his position this during the presentation of a paper at the distinguished personality lecture organised by National Anthropological and Sociological Students Association (NASA) of the Department of Sociology, University of Ibadan, entitled “Sociological Explanation of Insecurity in Nigeria: The Boko Haram Phenomenon,”attributed this to a situation where thousands of graduates were yearly produced without commensurate job opportunities.
According to him, the situation in the country had forced them to take up jobs like gatemen, bar tenders, Okada riders while some were gravitating towards crimes such as 419, armed robbery and internet fraud popularly called yahoo-yahoo. Noting that poverty was widespread and not easing, he said that the failure of the Nigeria Police and other law enforcement agencies to curb surging crimes, weak or corrupt judiciary could lead to revolution.
Is Revolution Possible?
According to Jideofor Adibe, a public affairs analyst, the Middle East-type of revolution is possible in Nigeria. To clarify his position he enlists the influential work, “Beyond Ujamaa in Tanzania: Underdevelopment and the Uncaptured Peasantry” by Swedish-American political scientist Goran Hyden which argued that African small cultivators prioritise their informal support networks such as familial and ethnic obligations over the pursuit of profit. For Hyden, African peasants are trapped in subsistence production because of the ‘economy of affection’, which is their comfort zone, will not allow them to engage in economically rational pursuits. The latter, accord
In a very influential work, Beyond Ujamaa in Tanzania: Underdevelopment and the Uncaptured Peasantry (1980), Swedish-American political scientist Goran Hyden argued that African small cultivators prioritise their informal support networks such as familial and ethnic obligations over the pursuit of profit. For Hyden, African peasants are trapped in subsistence production because the ‘economy of affection’, which is their comfort zone, will not allow them to engage in economically rational pursuits.
The latter, according to him, means that the peasants remain largely ‘uncaptured’ by state and capital. In Adibe’s view, those who believe that the type of revolution that is currently sweeping through the Middle East and the Maghreb regions cannot happen in Nigerian have relied on a variant of the ‘economy of affection’ argument – namely that the country’s ethnic, religious and other primordial fault lines are so deep that Nigerians are unlikely to rise above their sentimental attachments to these cleavages for a concerted revolutionary action.
But he argues that those who believe a Middle East-type of revolution is impossible in Nigeria appear to underestimate the power of contagion or domino effect. His words: “When, after the Second World War, Macmillan’s ‘wind of change’ triggered a wave of anti-colonial movements in Africa; did this wind not also sweep through Nigeria despite the existence and politicisation of the current fault lines?
“When Gorbachev’s perestroika and glasnost triggered a chain of events that culminated in the fall of the Berlin wall and unleashed a wave of democratisation forces across Eastern Europe and Africa, did ethnic, religious and other cleavages prevent this from snowballing into the National Conference in Benin Republic (February 19-28, 1990), which forced President Kérékou to turn over effective power to a transitional government? And did our primordial cleavages prevent the democracy wind from blowing through Nigeria and other African countries?”?
?