As the world waits with bated breath to see what 2012 holds, EZRA IJIOMA in this article, hazards the likely events and where they might occur across the world.
Arab Spring – Work In Progress
Life is a continuum. No event exists in isolation. Sometimes, the most innocuous of events produces the most profound of changes. Who would have ever believed that the death of a humiliated fruit seller in Tunisia would bring down dynasties and dictators and change the way people see governments? It was an event whose success did not just stop within the Arab world but has inspired protests across the world. Not since the French Revolution of 1789 has an event shaken the world this much. Of what happened in 2011, the Arab Spring topped the list. However, it is not yet summer in the Arab nations as dictatorial forces continue to chip away at the peoples’ revolution.
Of course, the price for freedom is eternal vigilance and the Arabs must watch over their new found freedom. The Iranians went to sleep after their 1979 Revolution and the mullahs hijacked it. The increasing electoral gains of Islamic parties in the Arab world should then be a matter of concern lest the Arabians shed one master for another.????
In Egypt, while the protesters are battling the military remnants of ousted President Hosni Mubarak, the Islamic party is gradually growing in power and may hijack the revolution.? Tunisians have voted for Islamic rule and the new Libyan rulers have advocated for Sharia. In Syria, the days of the Assad dynasty are numbered and the mindless violence only worsens Bashar al Assad’s case. It is very likely he may not survive the first half of 2012 because the noose is tightening as allies find it increasingly difficult to defend the regime amid the killings. His father got away with thousands of killings to keep power but times have changed; there are Aljazeera, CNN and the social media. The Saudi princes are of course worried. The protests in Bahrain will continue and may spread into Saudi Arabia given the sectarian issues involved.
The dynasties in the Arabian Peninsula will not escape the wind of change sweeping through the region. How long the sheikhs will sit on the peoples petro dollars remains a matter of time unless they reform like the British monarchy did. 2012 will be a decisive year for the region as the people will push for more changes in the face of governments’ failure to live up to their responsibilities.
Presidential Elections In 2012
Presidential elections will be held in some leading countries and this will definitely shape global political and economic realities. The biggest event of 2012 will be who leads the free world. As the Americans go to polls in November to choose who leads them, all attention will be there. To many, it is a referendum on Barack Obama, how well he has performed. The Republicans are still battling indecisiveness. Will Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich lead the Republican charge for the White House or will Ron Paul spring the biggest surprise of an era? Whatever many political pundits may say, the Obama brand is still very strong and it would take more than a Romney or a Gingrich to beat that brand.
The Democrats have to decide who runs with Barack Obama. Many are calling for Hillary Rodham Clinton to partner Obama given the president’s presumed poor showing in recent years. Joe Biden is too old to run a second time and this puts Clinton in a fine stead for the presidency in 2016. A hawk-like US president means more US invasions while a dove-like president means less military confrontations. Obama, a dove-like president, has reduced US military interventions unlike what the world saw under George Bush Senior and Junior. Russia and France will also go to the polls as Vladimir Putin (Russia) and Nicolas Sarkozy (France) seek another term in office. Despite his party losing its majority in the Russian Duma, Putin’s comeback attempt is still popular with many Russians. Western opposition cannot stop his 12-year grip on power.
Sarkozy seems to have the coast clear to himself after International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, got enmeshed in a sex scandal in the US. France is mired in the European financial troubles and Strauss-Kahn was touted to address the troubles.
Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin of United Republic party and former First Secretary of Socialist Party, François Hollande are challenging Sarkozy. France is struggling to avoid the worst of the financial crisis and it remains the other backbone of the EU (Germany is the main backbone). It has called for stricter control of finances in member countries and this is not popular in the EU.
Also, Ghana will hold a referendum on President John Atta-Mills and his National Democratic Congress party. Will Nana Addo and his New Patriotic Party dethrone Mills? Given the raucous campaigning, there are fears that the deep ideological divisions between the two parties may come to a head in 2012 presidential election and worsen the region’s security problem.
Euro Financial Crisis And France Presidential Poll
The Euro financial crisis will continue to shape European politics in 2012 and beyond.
Four political leaders have gone and more will definitely follow as the EU searches for solutions to its worst financial crisis ever.
Palestinian Statehood And Iran’s Nuclear ‘Teeth’
In the United Nations, the Palestinian question will come up again. It was about the most divisive topic in the UN last year and is likely to remain so this year. With Israel and Palestine unable to re-launch meaningful peace talks, the world body will be divided over whether to assist the Palestinians with a state not minding what Israel does.
Definitely, efforts will be made to restart talks between Israel and Palestine but the problem remains reaching enforceable agreements.? Hamas looks unlikely to trust Israel towards lasting peace in the region and Israel is bent on having its way with support from the US.
What happens to Iran’s nuclear issue?
With growing sanctions against its interests, Iran is lashing out like a caged animal. It has begun the year with threats as it seeks to dictate terms in the Persian Gulf. Will the US or Israel attack Iran’s nuclear installations? Well, it is likely the attack will happen this year given Iran’s uncompromising stance and provocative actions. Will the strike trigger another Gulf War?
Afghanistan and Pakistan
Finally, the Afghan authorities and the US have come around talking to the ‘enemy’ Taliban. It is an attempt by the US to cut its losses and run and for Hamid Karzai, to give Afghanistan back to Afghans. Giving the thrust and seriousness of discussions, 2012 may see the beginning of the end to the war in Afghanistan. Already, the Taliban have officially opened an office in Qatar for discussions to be part of Afghan government of national unity. Will the reclusive Mullah Muhammad Omar, acclaimed leader of Taliban, come back to rule Afghanistan?
Korean Peninsula
The death of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il, has only increased the tension in the Korean Peninsula as there is doubt over who is in charge in the world’s most isolated country. Is it the young and inexperienced Kim Jong Un or his uncle, Jang Song Thaek? Despite a calm facade, there is unease among the Americans and South Koreans with respect to how the new North Korea will respond to peace overtures made by the US and South Korea. China remains the most influential country to the isolated Korea and is expected to lead the charge for an open nation.
Of course, China itself must solve its political problem before it’s too late. It must resolve how much political space its citizens can live with given global standards and internal dissent.
What Else May Happen?
Well, plenty more will happen this year. There will be natural disasters, coups, wars, economic crisis and whatever that may come up.
The Iraqi sectarian violence is expected to worsen unless the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is a Shiite, reconciles with on-the-run Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, who was charged with ordering bombings and assassinations. There is Somalia and its decades-old war. Will the current multi-prong push oust al-shabab out of Somalia? If the determined push is sustained, the Islamic militant group may be routed this year. Also, the combined thrust against the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in East and Central Africa may finally bring the murderous group to its knees.
Every country has a story to tell in 2012 and the world is ready to hear it.