Zero-Subsidy, Boko Haram And Other Forces That’ll Shape 2012

2011 was a year defined by crises but 2012 does not appear to promise a paradise as the iron-fisted policies pushed by the presidency pose more challenges for a nation in the throes of change. LEADERSHIP SUNDAY’s UCHENNA AWOM in this analysis gives a rundown of issues, institutions and individuals whose actions and inactions could shape the New Year

Clearly, the country is at a crossroad. Its future as a sovereign entity is facing crucial challenges and of course its foundation as a united entity is going through some excruciating shock as a result of some extreme security challenges. Of all the problems, none perhaps has brought her to the brink than the unending attacks and killings by the notorious Boko Haram, an Islamic extremist group that its philosophy has rejected western education. Besides this, the sudden withdrawal of subsidy on petrol, otherwise known as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) is the immediate challenge and threat of it morphing into a major national crisis.

The combination of all these, coupled with the sour feelings of some politicians over the outcome of last year’s general elections have combined to overheat the political system. However, the problems have as it were thrown up actors whose actions and inactions would shape the socio-economic and political environment in 2012. What are the key events that will shape 2012.

Removal of Subsidy
The announcement by the Petroleum Product Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) on New Year’s Day, January 1, 2012 came like a thunder bolt and of course, it had the trappings of a well choreographed scene in a horror movie, laced with suspense and surprises. Many were caught unawares, including top government functionaries and even the National Assembly. As expected, the Nigerian people cried blue murder. Organised labour was even caught napping, thus eliciting fears that they; Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) may have compromised. But it was not to be, though spontaneously the public reacted with resistance led by civil society groups.

They held fort until labour rallied after the shock to issue terse notice of a total paralysis of the national economy on Monday. They seem to be resolved on the threat of a national strike, which according to them would be total and indefinite. The National Assembly, particularly the Senate through its spokesman, Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe issued a statement that suggested very strongly that the National Assembly was not sounded out before the sudden withdrawal, but not that they were unaware of plans to withdraw the subsidy.

He had declared that a consensus was yet to be reached and that consultations were still going on in the circumstance. In any case while his body language indicates that the withdrawal was premature, he insist that the Senate still believes that the prevailing situation will not vitiate the ongoing consultations. The House of Representatives on its part, hinted of a possible open clash with President Goodluck Jonathan and vowed to reverse the policy decision.

Apparently realising the futility of their threat on the knowledge that it is well beyond their statutory powers to reverse such executive pronouncement, the House mellowed down to toe the same coordinated line as the Senate. What has however happened is that a crisis situation is on ground and sharp division has been created between the people and the government. By so doing their actions would definitely direct the behavior and focus of Nigerians in the next twelve months.

PPPRA???
This is the agency saddled with onerous responsibility of ensuring the availability of petroleum products, moderate its price and regulate the activities of operators in the downstream sector of the petroleum industry. It does this by establishing parameters and codes of conduct for all operators. In announcing the subsidy removal, its Executive Secretary, Mr. Reginald Stanley said the agency acted in accordance with its statutory mandate as enshrined in Section 7 of the PPPRA Act, 2004. He made it clear to marketers that no subsidy would be paid on PMS discharges after January 1, 2012.

“Following extensive consultation with stakeholders across the nation, the PPPRA wishes to inform all stakeholders of the commencement of formal removal of subsidy on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), in accordance with the powers conferred on the agency by the law establishing it, in compliance with Section 7 of PPPRA Act, 2004. By this announcement, the downstream sector of the petroleum industry is hereby deregulated for PMS. Service providers in the sector are now to procure products and sell same in accordance with the indicative benchmark price to be published fortnightly and posted on the PPPRA website”, he said. Stanley however assured of adequate supply of the products.

That was the announcement that sent the prices of petrol skyrocketing to as much as N200 per litre in some places and N141 in most filling stations, especially those located in urban areas.? The implication of the sudden decision and the attendant over 100 percent rise in price was the astronomical increase in transportation. Commuters have to grapple with the reality. Unfortunately, the decision was taken without recourse to the fact that so many families traveled for the Yuletide and New Year celebration and of course, many are right now stranded without enough money to transport them back to their bases. It is also a period when parents are faced with the arduous but compelling task of paying their wards’ school fees. There is little doubt if the increase will not affect school fees.

President Goodluck Jonathan
President Jonathan is the driver and the buck stops on his desk. Already, he is clearly feeling the heat but sources hint that he is not ready to buckle in the face of mounting opposition to the policy. By doing so, he may be further seen as a weakling who lacks the will power to drive policies no matter how controversial. Yet, some other sources said the man who told Nigerians that he had no shoes to go to school with, may put something on the dialogue table with organised labour as an icing to prevent a major bedlam.

However, the President seems to have become the most courageous of all his predecessors to go the whole hog on this matter, which is perhaps the most volatile and controversial of all socio-economic issues in the land. Almost all the former presidents and heads of state attempted to remove the subsidy, but had to cave in to pressures or in consideration of some political expediency.? Jonathan may have decided to go all out to reinvent himself and put a lie to the insinuations that he is a weak leader despite his seemingly poor handling of the security challenges in the country. He may have also done what he did, knowing that he has no political stake beyond 2015. In that case, if the policy plays out well; he would relish the glory in retirement. Either way it goes, his actions in the days ahead would ultimately shape the polity.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Mrs Okonjo-Iweala is the Minister of Finance and the coordinating Minister in charge of economic policies. Many see her as the architect of the hard line policy and an avid apostle of deregulation. She is variously perceived as a World Bank and IMF surrogate in Nigeria, who is out to do only their bidding even to the detriment of the well being of her countrymen and women. Having worked as Vice President and Managing Director at the World Bank, Okonjo-Iweala’s actions and inactions can hardly be separated from the policies of the international monetary and regulatory agencies.

During her tenure as Finance Minister in the Olusegun Obasanjo regime, Nigeria was said to have fully paid up all her external debts. Critics were however, quick to say that such effort did not come without some price, but to who and what effect did it have on Nigeria’s economy. Today, Nigeria’s foreign debt profile is above $40billion and the country is still borrowing. The government has even indicated that it will borrow to finance the 2012 budget. She is in the eye of the storm and momentarily, Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala seems to be enemy number one, for the ordinarily Nigerian whose actions in the days ahead would conjure hardship to the impoverished populace.

Amb. Christopher Kolade
Like a goldfish, Chief Kolade would henceforth have no hiding place. Before now, he chose to play at the background, but with his hurried appointment as the Chairman of the Subsidy Reinvestment and Implementation agency (SURE) Kolade has become the issue.? President Jonathan said while appointing him with General Mamman Kontagora as the ones that will ensure that the savings from the subsidy removal would be utilised to achieve total infrastructural development, healthcare delivery, education, and so forth. However, its establishment, which seems like an image boosting measure in anticipation of serious opposition, may be subjected to serious legal challenges. The challenge would not be on its establishment, but rather on the sources of its funds. This is because the presidency lacks the right to spend outside appropriated funds, especially given that subsidy was not provided for in the 2012 budget. Also, the body cannot perform the oversight and monitoring functions, which are statutorily the preserve of the National Assembly.

Nonetheless, Kolade would be expected to answer to the good and bad of what would happen in the so-call reinvestment of the subsidy proceeds to development projects in the country. His office no doubt would turn out to be the next destination of contractors and may be susceptible to be used for government patronage.

Senate President David Mark
The position of the senate is that a decision has not be reached in the matter of the subsidy, and again, it insists that consultations are still ongoing. What it means is that the upper chamber may be out to influence reversal or at best cause the review of the policy such that the price of the product would not be as high as it is presently. The senate took a middle cause approach realising their constitutional handicap in the circumstance. However, Nigerians still believe that Senator Mark and his colleagues still have a major role to play, by at least mitigating the suffering arising from the petrol price increase.

Aside the subsidy issue, Mark’s rising profile in the political scene has made him a brand and an issue of some sort. There is no doubt that his action and his legislative activities would shape the social and political environment this year. He is now in the clear and is not encumbered by any pending litigation. In that case, he will go all out to assert himself as a political factor. Recall his courage to challenge the Northern political and religious leadership to rise up and challenge the Boko Haram menace last year. He was applauded and of course that has become his trade mark of late to voice out against any ills where others fear to tread, but whether he will side the people on the subsidy issue is still left at the realm of conjecture.

Speaker Aminu Waziri Tambuwal
While Mark acts as a stabilising factor, Tambuwal and his colleagues in the House still vibrate and most cases heats up the relationship between the national parliaments with the executive.? Though, most times they tend to overshoot the runway only to make a detour when the gaffe becomes obvious. The disposition and the circumstances that threw up the Speaker have whipped up great expectations from the Nigerian public. However, Tambuwal is being looked on to alter some political calculations that could aid some political permutations in 2012.

NLC/TUC
By Monday, the organised labour is expected to hit the streets in Nigeria to protest the removal of the fuel subsidy. They announced within the week that the strike action and the mass protest would affect the closure of the land, air and sea, thus marking total paralyses of the country. The leadership also declared that the strike will not only be total, but will be indefinite until the government reverts to the old petrol price regime of N65 per litre.? That is the current situation unless otherwise, but the threat has put labour on the spot. How it goes about it would both clear the mistrust of the people and perhaps put a lie to the claim of government that the organised labour was carried along in the decision or confirm them as nothing but lackeys that have greatly compromised labour movement in Nigeria.

By Friday, there was however a twist to labour’s proposed nation-wide strike action. The National Industrial Court halted labour through an injunction from going ahead with the strike.

However, the strike if pulled through would ultimately shape the character of Nigeria’s political followership. Before now, the Nigerian public is characterised as weak, docile and ever ready to capitulate at the slightest pressure. It is hoped now that slightest resilience of the labour unions may shape the character of Nigerians and elevate them to the height of people that sacrifice their momentary happiness to achieve a lasting peace and development.

The Nigeria Protester
The Nigerian protesters will definitely be on the firing range, will there be casualities? Already, one is down in Illorin, Kwara State and scores are wounded. Perhaps, this protest will shape the character of mass movement in Nigeria. It could be that a sustained protest will give rise to Nigeria’s spring, who knows. But at the end, Nigeria will not remain the same again, especially if any further blood is shed in the course of the protest. One thing remain clear, the Nigerian has the opportunity of being celebrated; the Nigerian has also come to the point where his/her views would be taken very serious when any policy is being enunciated and this is only if the protesters successfully pulls off the protest without any division.

Security
On the security side, Nigeria is facing her worst challenges after the civil war. Nothing has brought the country to the brink of collapse than the nefarious activities of the Boko Haram; an Islamic Sect that is challenging western education. Their activities have re-ignited the of mutual suspicion that exists among Nigeria’s ethnic nationalities. The group has once again brought the negative side of Nigeria’s heterogeneity to the open.

There are strong insinuations that some powerful political elements that were miffed by the outcome of the last general election are hiding behind the faceless group to make the country ungovernable. Perhaps they overreached themselves with the Christmas day bombing of a Catholic Church in Madala, in the northern state of Niger where scores, including an entire whole family lost their lives.? The bombing has ferociously ignited religious acrimony and torched the very far end of ethnic divide. Today there are open calls for division.

It got to the hilt when Christian leaders uncharacteristically asked their members to defend themselves in the face of any Muslim attack. Muslims have made spirited efforts to distance the religion from the act, yet the suspicion is growing in leaps and bound.

The misgiving stems from the accusations that Boko Haram has not been challenged the way it ought to by the Northern political leadership, thus fueling insinuations of some undercurrents.

That bombing, gave President Jonathan the impetus to declare a state of emergency in some parts of some Northern states mostly affected by the sects negative activities. Well at the last count, the sect was quoted to have asked all Christians and Southerners to leave the North and some groups in South like the Odua People’s Congress (OPC) have also asked southerners in the North to return and vowed in the process to retaliate any further killings of their kits and kin.

General Azubike Ihejirika
Chief of Army Staff General Ihejirika has been given the arduous task of managing the emergency situation. It is indeed an unenviable task that has all the trappings of political suspicion. How he handles this important assignment will be seen in the restoration of Nigerians’ confidence in the unity of the country. The good thing is that the Muslim and Christian leaders have all given tacit declaration that they would rather cooperate than allow any extremist group to scatter their relationship.