Mr. Tope Fasua, is a London trained Economist with 15years of Banking experience.He now runs a conglomerate of Business Consultancy firms Global Analytics’ with operational bases in Nigeria, UK, United Arab Emirates and Ghana. In this interview with JAMES UWEM, he ex-rayed topical issues in the Nigerian economy. Excerpts:
What is your assessment of the Nigerian economy? Is it growing or declining
The issue shouldn’t be if the economy is growing or declining but if Nigeria even has an economy model? in the first place.
Ideally, Nigerian Economy is not organized, despite the potentials and prospects, Nigerians are not able to harness those prospects.Again,there are other interests that? wants to take the economy in a different direction,so that is? the kind of economy Nigeria operates .
What other interest
We lived in a globalized era. Initially globalization was deceptively portrayed to mean that factors of production will be easily transferred. Now,you find out that developing countries are loosing out in the game of globalization.
If you go to British high commission or American embassy as we speak, you see dejection .but if an English person want’s to? come to Nigeria, he will have it very easy , so you can see the imbalance. I think most people who run the economy, I dare to say are visionless , that is why we don’t have economic model of our own? .
In essence your argument is that the economy is not doing well
We are living in some other peoples paradigm. Right from Independence,We were enslaved and colonized and when the colonizers were leaving, they left us with certain economic model that is not ours , therefore, we can’t say if we have done well or not.
That economic model is structured to suite with the wimps and caprices of those who made the model, this is the reality why life? expectancy in Nigeria is below 45yrs .
Why are we operating an economic? model that does not suit us?
They called? Africa? the developing economy, then you ask, developing in what? when the colonialist were departing, they consciously made us to be? agricultural bases economy for us to be giving them the row materials for their industries.
Now the point is, What measure of agricultural product will for instance be exchanged for an Airplane? You can now see that in that perspective, Africa doesn’t exist. We may never catch up in a world where people countries are exchanging hard industrial products.
Africa, Nigeria are in the extractive industry , we are just buying time , if the extractive industries disappears , where are we going to be? The oil we are extracting now, think of it, how much inputs do we have in extracting the oil ? The NNPC? is talking about the local content but the truth is that these are technologies we don’t own, perhaps, if? the white man? decides to leaves today,? we won't even know? what to do to extract the oil.
Right now, you? will agree with me that we don’t even? the true figures and amount of? oil? extracted daily. That is why? I am saying that manager of our economy? don’t have vision. If you ask me today I would say we should first off all, go back and? try to feed ourselves. It is ridiculous when the minister of? Agriculture, Dr. Akinwumi? Adesina mentioned? that we spent about N1.4 trillion? yearly on food importation .
So? why cant we produce? the rice that we need? Rather we are moving from an economy that we? were at least? able? to feed? ourselves in the 1960 to food importation economy. So you can see people don’t understand, what destination the economy is heading .
Now back to our? corruption culture in? government, there’s? so much pressure. religious ,? ethnic and cultural sentiments , In my view,? I would say the? people? in government are not radical enough to run government in an economy? like Nigeria, they ought to be resolute , and concentrate.
Again? People are suppose to think, but? the moment some one is? in government, the person becomes deaf , dumb and blind !? Their lives are is a hurricane of meetings and travels, therefore there is no time for them to think.This is why it is imperative for one to articulate your views before getting? into government.
The late Prof. Samuel Aluko,said Nigeria economy has defy all economic theories,do you share the same view ?
I am an Economist, though a much junior economist but I don’t agree that our economy has defy all theories. The handlers of our economy were running some one else’s economic model,so they will always say, economy is not responding to economic theories for example, the national income model,??? simple GDP model , it does not mean? Africa, Nigeria, should keep on using it dogmatically without modification even if it doesn’t suit us.
That is one key reason why Nigerian economy is said not to have responded to? economic theories. As it is , we have thrown away our cultural and the history model . In the conventional thinking, in controlling? inflation, you increase the interest rates,? but? in Nigeria you increase the interest rates, the inflation does not stop, so they say oh Nigeria? economy is not responding to theories, why? Because we are not thinking
How can Nigeria do away with the mono economy,oil
Government in the past twenty years never have economic agenda before taking overgovernment , therefore, they finds? it difficult to make the required change . Recent,Wikileaks reports placed Nigeria as the most monitored country south? of the equator, so you ask your? self why?One is because Nigeria has an intrinsic economic potentials , which we our selves don’t know.
So creating a different economy the government must? start by reducing wastages, get our engineers to embark on technologies? geared towards food preservation, that will bring down hunger in the society, then we educationally train our? professionals . You see , we have so much mineral resources , but we don’t have professionals and the technology to harness those minerals, every body is busy with oil.
Would Africa, Nigeria ever have a voice of their own?, what do you make of the Chinese donatingto AU a $ 400 million Secretariat building?
No! we’ll? never have a voice of our own! Are? we ready to take the risk ?? To me,? collaborate with America , Chinese or Europeans is choosing between the lesser evil.Well,? but there are lessons to learn from the Chinese, we should look back at how the Chinese? stated , they started with cultural revolution telling themselves the truth, with their huge population , they said every family should own one child.?
Then even the Americans criticised them,? that policy helped , they would have been about 2 to 3 Billion today. I look at Africa today, we don’t have a philosopher king who is prepared to lead Africa to achieve its goals without minding the consequences from the west. Ghadaffi I think was on the verge of liberating? Africa but the west wouldn’t allow him .
The Chinese are playing a very intricate game , they want to make money , the want to secure Africa. They have seen a lot of economic potentials thatAfricans? have not seen . However, there shouldn’t be any thing to be afraid of the Chinese, but we should rather be concern about technological transfer from them.
Oil is still Nigeria’s mainstay, The Petroleum Industrial bill (PIB), are you an advocate for its? re-introducted in the National Assembly
Certainly, only if the progenitors of the bill can lay hands on the original copies . The copies circulating around now is a bastardised and doctored version .? PIB in earnest was a honest attempt by government to end corruption in the sector. I truly felt like weeping for Nigeria.
You? see some charlatans in the National assembly and? in government stealing monies they cant account for? . Well ,on the? contrary, I always have a minority? opinion that the best president Nigeria ever had was President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua who managed despite? his ailing condition put the PIB to the National Assembly. When that happened, Ann Pickard who was heading Shell? Petroleum in Nigeria then, during the 2009 Petroleum summit actually said that that bill was not going to see the light of the day ! she said the bill was as good as tissue paper, and that the people who puts it together? don’t know anything about petroleum.?
In my research, I discovered that every President who came up with something closed to PIB died mysteriously, President? Jaime Roldos of Ecuador and? Torrijos of Panama.? Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, had coup sponsored against him, Salvador Alende of Chile was killed in a coup , all these and many more paid dearly for trying to reform petroleum laws. Ideally, PIB? was attempt to reinvent the oil sector , to get more for Nigerian interms of? local content .?
I tell you today , the country doesnot know how much oil is produced in the country on adaily bases. .When we hear that Nigeria produces 2.6billion barrels ,we quickly multiply it by the much Dollar? sells in international market , there is more to it!? That was why President Yar’Adua and? Rilwani Lukman , as some one knows their trick put up that BILL , I? believe lukman took the risk of his life to put that bill together .
Yar’Adua stake his life on it ,I? don’t believe he died a natural dead. I tell you that these oil companies? don’t pay signing fees, can you imagine that? the terms of our oil contract were drawn? in the 1960’s.
As at 2009 , Nigerian leaders tried to assert and repackage those contracts but the foreign? powers that be said no.In 2009, it was revealed that the oil companies took senators out to Ghana to bribe them to water down and ensure they don’t pass the? PIB .
It may interest you to know that most people in government are not working? for Nigeria , they are representing different foreign interest., like all these? people they pushed to us from IMF. The PIB, if they can get the original copy , fine and good but I doubt if they will be sincere enough to present it original copy.
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