Ahead of the scheduled October 20 gubernatorial poll in Ondo State, the real contenders and pretenders’ line-up to unhorse Governor Olusegun Mimiko who is not letting the grass grow under his feet as he marshals his battle-plan. In this analysis, DAVID AKINADEWO, weighs the pendulum and opinion of political watchers which favours the ruling Labour Party (LP) and gives the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) an edge over the other key opposition – Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN)
In the coming battle, the incumbent, Dr Olusegun Mimiko will be slugging it out with the two other major gladiators – Mr. Rotimi Akeredolu SAN of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and Chief Olusola Oke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
In all the elections ever held in the history of the state, two major political parties usually contest election while the third political party will be virtually unserious and come a distant third. The LP is the ruling party while PDP and ACN are leaving no stones unturned to register their presence in the state and struggling between each other to become the major contender.
Before June this year, the ACN was a force to be reckoned with in the political equation in Ondo State. But the story changed shortly after the party chose its governorship candidate and it was thrown into crisis. This resulted in the defection of majority of the governorship aspirants who either pitched their tents with the PDP or the ruling LP.
The latest development no doubt gave the PDP an advantage over the ACN, which is yet to fully recover from the crisis over the choice of candidate. But with three months before the elections, any of the political parties could cover a lot of grounds which would make it a force to be reckoned with.
Among the 56 registered political parties in the country, only few have their presence in Ondo state. They included the ruling Labour Party (LP), the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP), Action Congress of Nigeria, (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change(CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party(ANPP) and Social Democratic Mega Party(SDMP).
Four out of these lots, LP, PDP, ACN, and CPC have shown seriousness about contesting the governorship election, but CPC is surely not in the race because its structures are not visible. It is however clear now that the Sunshine State which used to have two major political parties as contenders in the subsequent elections since 1999, is set to play host to three that are not ready to let go in the race to the Alagbaka Government House.
In 1999, the battle for the government house was between the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and PDP. Similarly, the battle in 2003 was between the same rival parties until internal crisis and desire of the people of the South West to vote for a party with a national outlook led to the death of AD.
But the race in 2007 and 2011 was between the PDP and LP, although the ACN contested the elections on the two occasions, it however did not record any serious presence as it came far behind.
The ACN however became a force to be reckoned with shortly after the 2011 general elections when many prominent politicians joined the rank of the party from the PDP and LP.
Later in 2011, the Ondo Chapter of the ACN also recorded more successes as the Chairman of LP, DrOlaiya Oni and some of his loyalists joined the party. More goodies also came the way of the ACN after the cabinet reshuffle announced by Governor OlusegunMimiko, and Commissioners and other appointees who were left in the lurch joined the ACN.
Those who became the bride of the ACN at the time included Prince Sola Amodeni, OtunbaOmoniyiOmodara, MrSakaLawal and Pastor YeleOmogunwa. The Senator representing Ondo North senatorial district, Prof Robert AjayiBoroffice and the member of House of Representative representing Akure South and North, Mr Sunday Abegunde also left the ruling LP for the rival ACN.
Similarly, prominent members of the PDP who were disappointed by the way the National Secretariat of their party and the president treated their party members during the 2011 general elections also joined the ACN.
They included former Commissioner for Finance and Commerce and Industry, Chiefs TayoAlasoadura and Chief Bode Sunmonu. Former Chairmen of local governments including AdebamboOdoro for Ilaje local government and Adelegbe of Ose council area among others dumped the PDP for ACN.
But shortly after the party picked Akeredolu, the story changed and many people moved in anger to the extent that the ranks of the PDP which were so decimated to the extent that the party has no hope of recovery became whole once again.
Prior to this development, many of the members in the PDP were either on their way to the ruling LP or the rival ACN. The situation of the party was further worsened as those who remain in the party were divided on either to support Governor OlusegunMimiko to realize his second term ambition or to support whoever ACN picks as its governorship candidate.
At the time, the ACN was the bride of anybody seeking to contest governorship election as the PDP was not a viable option. The ACN had over 30 aspirants while PDP had none.
But the situation has changed for the PDP now. Whereas the ACN is still caught in the web of crisis that has made it a difficult task for the party to name its Deputy Governorship Candidate two weeks after the other parties had named theirs.
The situation in the party deteriorated to the extent that many of the aggrieved aspirants either left the party or vowed to remain in the party and worked against their candidate.
The aggrieved aspirants included, DrTunjiAbayomi, DrOluAgunloye, Hon. SegunOjo, Dr. Segun Abraham, Mr. Festus Oyewole, Mrs. JumokeAnifowose, Prof. Robert Boroffice, Hon. Joseph Ajatta, OtunbaAdesioyeAdefope-Ajayi, Chief JamiuEkungba, Mr. LanreAtanloogun, Mr. Awodeyi, MrAkinsehinwa, MrSakaLawal and Mr. OlayatoAribo. They insisted on not working for Akeredolu’s success at the poll.
They said the emergence of Akeredolu failed all democratic norms and insisted on not accepting him. Also, the aspirants condemned the “betrayal of pact and agreement reached with national leadership and underwritten by National Chairman, Chief BisiAkande that party’s candidate will be chosen, openly, democratically with wider consultation and consensus among all the aspirants and broad based stakeholders.”
Although the ACN governors and national leaders of the party tried to mitigate the crisis by calling some of the aspirants to a meeting either in Lagos and Osun states, the peace move has not achieved the desired result.In fact, those who really felt aggrieved by the decision of the party leaders were either not invited to the meetings or decided to shun the parley.
The situation however became a blessing in disguise for the PDP which was in doldrums as it clearly came alive now with the choice of the former National Legal Adviser of the party, Chief OlusolaOke as its flag bearer. One of the aggrieved governorship aspirants of the ACN Mr. SakaLawal who joined the PDP was later named the deputy governorship candidate of the party.
One of the political jokers being sold by the PDP now to the people of the state is that if voted back into power, the party has fashioned out an arrangement that would ensure that it is one governor to a term of four years in the state.
The state chairman of the PDP, Mr. Ebenezer Alabi who reeled out the ‘no second term’ arrangement at a press conference in Akure recently, said “we have decided to set up a State Coordinating Committee of seventeen members comprising seven members each from PDP and A C N while the Labour Party will have three members and also another State Steering Committee with all the participating Parties having a member each from all the Local Governments.
It is compelling for me to declare that this tripartite arrangement is designed to put in place a multidimensional approach aimed at rescuing our State from debauchery, nepotism, outlandish projects, and poverty of ideas on policy issues, crass opportunism and outright managerial crisis that we are currently subjected to.”
With the clean bill of health of the LP which has no dispute over the choice of candidate like that of the ACN and neither did it have issues to resolve over the choice of deputy governorship candidate, the party is no doubt ahead of the two other political parties.
Although political calculations can still change within the next three months that is still left before the conduct of the election, but political analysts have said that with the unwavering popularity enjoyed by the incumbent governor, which was again confirmed during his declaration for second term in office on July 25, 2012, in Akure, the state capital, his party still has a better edge over the other two contenders.
The PDP has also successfully overtaken the ACN and moving seriously to slug it out with the LP, but the popular opinion in the state is that if elections are held in the state now, the LP would win with a clear margin, and the second would be the PDP while ACN would be at distant third.