Despite the depressive performances of major economies occasioned by debt and other fiscal problems in European, Asian and American economies in the past months, Nigeria’s economy when measured by real gross domestic product grew by 6.28 per cent on an aggregate basis in the second quarter of 2012. The growth rate is lower than the 7.61 per cent it recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2011.
The latest reports by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on the overall performance of the economy in the quarter under review indicated, however, that the nominal GDP for the three-month period ended June this year which was estimated at N9.84 trillion, was still higher than the N9.17 trillion recorded during the corresponding period of last year.
A breakdown of the contributions to the growth rate showed clearly that the non-oil sector was growing faster with activities in the building & construction sector spurring the growth while the oil sector’s contributions shrank as overall output from crude oil production dipped during the review period comparative to what the output was in Q2, 2011.
According to the agency’s report, the oil sector with a total 2.38 million barrels of oil production, with their associated gas components, per day recorded a real terms growth rate of -0.73 per cent as against the 2.45 million barrels per day, representing 0.98 per cent growth in the corresponding period of last year.
Even while it remains a major driver of the economy over the past year, the non-oil sector also experienced a slower growth rate in Q2, 2012 with a growth rate of 7.50 per cent in real terms compared with 8.85 per cent in the corresponding period of last year.
The bureau disclosed further that the agricultural sector, which is the largest contributor to the GDP growth, also showed significant decline in performance as in terms of output, real agricultural GDP growth in Q2, 2012 dropped to 3.97 per cent as against 5.95 per cent in Q2, 2011.
An appraisal of the performance of other sectors in terms of their contributions to the real GDP indicated that the manufacturing sector fared well with an increase in growth rate from 7.34 per cent in the second quarter of 2011 to 7.45 per cent in the review period in 2012. The telecommunication sector recorded a real GDP growth of 29.77 per cent compared to 33.70 per cent recorded in Q1, 2011.
The wholesale and retail trade sector grew by 8.61 per cent in Q1, 2012, representing a decline of 2.86 per cent over the 11.47 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of last year compared with the real sector growth rate stood at 10.87 per cent in Q2, 2012 compared with 10.48 per cent in the corresponding period of last year.
Meanwhile, the composite consumer price index which measures inflation rose to 11.7 per cent year-on-year in August compared with 12.8 per cent last year.
On the urban and rural indices, the report stated that, in the month under review, the urban inflation rate stood at 14.4 per cent year-on-year compared with rural index which indicated a 9.7 per cent year-on-year increase. It added that the ‘Urban All Items’ index increased by 0.69 per cent month-on-month, while the corresponding rural index increased by 0.66 per cent, when compared with July’s trend.
“The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12-month period ending in August 2012 over the average of the CPI for the previous 12-month period was 11.8 per cent. The corresponding 12-month year-on-year average percentage change for urban and rural indices was 12.4 and 11.4 respectively.”
“The composite food index increased year-on-year by 9.9 percent to 135.9 points in August 2012, down from 12.1 per cent in July 2012. On a year-on-year basis, the relative moderation of food prices over the month of August could be attributable to a significant base effect. During the same period last year, the food index increased sharply by 2.7 per cent partially as a result of higher fish and tuber prices, as well as fruits due to the fasting period.
“As this was rather uncommon, the year-on-year percentage change in August 2012 reflects a lower year-on-year estimate due to the sharp increase in August 2011. The food index was also higher than levels recorded in July of this year by 0.7 per cent. The appreciation in the food index was largely across all major class lead by higher prices in fish, oils and fats, and meats. The increase in the food sub-index were also partially driven by increase in imported foods price”, NBS added.
It reported further that the “all items less farm produce” index rose by 14.7 per cent year-on-year in August 2012, compared to 15.0 per cent in July, adding that on a month-on-month basis, the core index increased by 0.6 per cent during the same period.
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